The thing about precious metals as a commodity is that they are easy to take delivery of. You cannot take delivery of  corn, wheat or oil, but you can take delivery of gold and silver! This means you are not speculating on something you cannot hold. This is one appeal of gold and silver investments.

Speculators who do not take delivery may be coming under increased scrutiny, but you don’t need ot worry about that. Do you?

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Well I know that my stocks are not doing very well, and that is across the board. My precious metals stash, consisting mostly of silver US coins, has been faring much better. In fact, the increase in my PM value over the last few years is just about the only thing that keeps me from total panic these days.

A company called USA silver wants to teach you how to profit from US Silver and Gold Coins too. You can enjoy a free initial consultation, and then decide if precious metals investment is for you.

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James Turk says that the logic does work about 75% to 85% percent of the time. It works most of the time, but that does not, as he admits, work all of the time. In general, the 1st and 4th quarter are stronger, while the 2nd and 3rd quarter are softer. Now we did reach a peak in March which would conform to the logic, but we are net getting a clear pattern of any sort of bullish market yet. In fact, so far this year, a sale in March and repurchase in April would have been a great strategy. But if you, like me, missed the March boat, keep your eye out for the next one.

A weaker dollar, more expensive oil, and a stream of financial problems are supporting the price of your shiny stuff. Do Your Own Due Dilligence, but if you can hold onto your silver and gold this summer, consider it strongly, despite conventional wisdom.  A gold or silver sale in May, may just be a sale you regret by July.

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We keep looking for signs that the value of our good old US dollar is finding support, and maybe even rising. In such a case, it might be time to put our silver and gold investment on the back burner again, and jump into more “normal” investments.

 In other words, maybe we should just keep a small percentage of our savings in PMs like silver and gold as a hedge for the future, and go about our business as usual. However, many experts tell us that despite the way the news and government downplay the facts, we are not anything like close to being back to business as usual.

How Much Should A Person Save in PMs?

Most advisors will say to only put a fraction of savings into precious metals anyway. They tell us to allocate 10 to 15 percent of our savings into gold, silver, platinum, or palladium because of the value as a hedge against inflation.

 Gold and Silver Bugs, or those that would rather put 85% of their savings into PMs, and maybe keep 15% as liquid cash think differently. They see PMs like gold and silver as the standard around which the dollar fluctuates, and not the other way around. These savers are all about hedging. Of course, in the last several months they have seen a great return on their PM investment, though historically the stock market indexes performed much better.

Most of us, who do appreciate the ability of PMs like gold and silver to retain some value no matter what happens, or maybe just like having a very shiny stack that goes “clink”, probably fall somewhere in between the true gold bug and the standard investment advice. And of course, we do watch the market and try to adjust accordingly.

Seeking Alpha is not seeing any signs that anything the fed has done will turn the tide on inflation in the near future.  In fact, the recent drop in gold and silver prices may be a time to look for some physical PM deals. If you have some extra cash, or an investment that is not doing very well right now, and you know you can afford to wait before you cash in any precious metals you buy with that investment, look around to see what you can buy.

What did I do? Well, I could not resist picking up a Gold American Eagle yesterday (GAE). I found a deal, a bit over spot but under the posted PCGS price for the MS69 GAE. I think gold may be losing its shine for some fair weather friends, and they are raising cash for other uses. I did spend money I could afford to “wait for”, and I did shop around for a purchase that I thought was a good purchase.

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I think that one thing illustrates the declining value of money very well. Simply look back at a point of time, and consider the amount of money took to purchase ordinary things that we still use every day. Then take a look at the amount of silver in $1 of US silver coins that actually circulated in currency. We have mentioned before that $1 of US silver coins contains .715 of an ounce of silver. So, for use as a standard, we shall call that a “standard” dollar, even though a quick look at the US silver coins calculator shows that today, that .715 ounces is worth about $12.23 of the coins or paper money you probably have in your pocket.

Now, with even The Wall Street Journal writing about potential food price increases, and that maybe we should stockpile food as an investment, we must look at some food items! Let’s take a common box of Cheerios cereal. It was .39 in 1963, but today that same box of Cheerios breakfast cereal tops out at $4.39. A loaf of Wonder Bread, the plain bread standard, was .29, and now it can sell for $2.89!

In 1963 a gallon of gasoline cost .29, and yes, I am just old enough to remember this. Where I live that same gallon of gas is about $3.30 today. Who knows what it will be tomorrow? Somehow I assume it will be closer to, or more than today’s price, and not closer to the 1963 price.

What is Silver Worth?

But look, $1 bought 3 gallons of gasoline or loaves of bread back in the early to mid sixties. That would have bene $1 in US silver currency (minted on or before 1964). Now the $12 and some change that the .715 ounces of silver in $1 of US silver currency is worth today, will buy about 4 loaves of bread or gallons of gas.

It may be time to consider hedging against inflation with some precious metals, and of course I like silver because it is, after all, the poor man’s gold! Or maybe we should just all go to the grocerty store and stock up on peanut butter and Cheerios. They store very well, and if the price inflation continues, may turn us a nice profit on the future breakfast cereal exchange or black market.

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Now I can find lots of opinions out in cyberspace to the contrary, who believe that the time to buy is now. Personally, I cannot see how our weak dollar and increasingly challenged economy suggest anything but gradual increases in the silver price. Especially when people are having trouble finding bullion at coin dealers in many parts of the country!

However Silver-Prices does seem to make money on silver stocks, which does not entirely depend upon the price of silver, so the article is worth a glance.

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Silver Shortage?

Because of the many industrial uses of silver, and its value as a precious metal, he does believe the long term prospects for gain on a silver investment are still better then other PMs, including gold. And I agree that while most of the gold that has ever been minded is still around somewhere, silver gets used up in some applications. And lately, many investors were having trouble with shortages at local dealers, and even large online dealers, for common silver bullion products. In other words, he believes that silver is in short supply, even if that is not public knowledge.

However, all of us who watch markets know that the metal price is very volatile, and in the short term, is not a game for the faint of heart. A better strategy is to invest slowly and do our best to buy on the dips, not the spikes. Of course, during the hype and cries of shortages, it is much more tempting to push the buy botton, and that my friends, is the hard part of the game.

Right now, I am sitting on my pile and watching. I could regret this, as silver could spike over $20 again. I could be relieved if silver drops as some reserves are dumped on the market to keep the price down.

Again, I am not any sort of professional investment advisor and you must DYODD! Comments?

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